Economic news

There was 2 kinds of technic that used being references to predict price movement, first Technical analysis is technic that use arithmetic formula as references and previous price used being basic data to projecting next price movement , currently trader who use this technic no need to calculation data complexly but just place indicator desire on flatform and let it run automatically then wait the signal arise, the other is Fundamental analysis, that uses economic news as basic prediction, including new government policy and its reports, economic news, business news and even rumors ,etc, however dramatic movement can be happened if there is accident happen either bank rate hike, until politic events or war, although that events doesnot take effect to market directly but Expectancy effect of that issue to the investors.

Every news that economic related directly or not that released, can be fundamental factor that need to be attention, fundamental analysis can be split by 4 categories such as:

1. Economic factor
2. Politic factor
3. Financial and fund factor
4. External factor


Economic Factor
In analysis national economy fundamental factor of a country, economic indicator is important and cannot be separated from fundamental analysis. Recently technological advances has helped and brought us to make easy in monitoring or reading economic news as economic indicator in many feature and place. Through internet you can do it yourself by visit to several site that reported about economic news such as forexfactory.com, bloomberg.com , babypip.com and many more. whereas economic indicator that often uses such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation, Balance of Payment, Employment, etc.

Political Factor
Political issue is one of fundamental indicators that influential enough to currency fluctuations of a corresponding country. it's  being hard enough to predict time when fluctuation impact will be happened, sometimes political issue making impact that significant fluctuation enough but in another time it does not take effect anything.

Financial Factor
Role of financial factor is crucial in fundamental analysis, the change of fiscal or monetary policy that is determined by government especially related in bank interest rate will bring significant change of impact to economic fundamental sector, This change will influence to their currency exchange rate as well. Market observers said that interest rate is main determinant to value of currency exchange rate, beside other economic indicators like quantity of money that circulating. The higher the interest rate also strengthened the exchange rate of currency.

External Factor
External factor can bring significant impact to a currency exchange rate. The Change of a country's economic can influence to economic of other country that located in same region. In the era of global asset allocation, portfolio capital flows are no longer know the limits of the country, but also extends up into the sphere of one region / specific regional.


Here is several economic indicator that influence to USD currency :

No	Economic Indicator Description	Up / Down	USD$
1	Average Earning	Up	strengthened
2	Balance of Payment	Up	strengthened
3	Budget Deficit	Down	strengthened
4	Business Inventories	Down	strengthened
5	Capacity Utilization	Up	strengthened
6	Car Sales	Up	strengthened
7	Chicago PMI (Purchasing Management Index)	Up	strengthened
8	Constuction Spending	Up	strengthened
9	Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)	Up	strengthened
10	Consumer Credit (CI)	Up	strengthened
11	Consumer Price Index (CPI)	Down	strengthened
12	Consumer Spending (Expenditure)	Down	strengthened
13	Cost of Living	Up	strengthened
14	Current Acount	Down	strengthened
15	Corporate Profit	Up	strengthened
16	Deflasi	Up	strengthened
17	Discount Rate	Up	strengthened
18	Durabel Goods Orders	Up	strengthened
19	Econimic Monetary System (EMS)	Up	strengthened
20	Factory Orders	Up	strengthened
21	Federal Budget	Up	strengthened
22	Federal Reserve Fund	Up	strengthened
23	Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	Up	strengthened
24	Gross National Product (GNP)	Up	strengthened
25	Housing Start	Up	strengthened
26	Industrial Productions	Up	strengthened
27	Invisible Trade	Down	strengthened
28	Jobless Claims	Up	strengthened
29	Leading Indicator	Up	strengthened
30	Money Supply (M1, M2, M3, M4)	Up	strengthened
31	National Association	Up	strengthened
32	(NAPM)	Up	strengthened
33	Non Farm Payrolls	Up	strengthened
34	Personal Expenditure	Up	strengthened
35	Personal Income	Down	strengthened
36	Prime Rate	Up	strengthened
37	Product Price Index (PPI)	Up	strengthened
38	Public Sector Debt Repayment	Up	strengthened
39	Retail Sales	Down	strengthened
40	Trade Balance	Up	strengthened
41	Trade Devicit	Down	strengthened
42	Trade Weighted Index	Down	strengthened
43	Unemployment Rate	Down	strengthened
44	Unit Labour Cost	Up	strengthened
45	Value Added Tax	Up	strengthened
46	Visible Trade	Up	strengthened

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Mastering self

When you are in trading, there are two kinds of emotion which must to be defeated, FEAR and GREED, in the intensity of each every trader will feel those both emotion. Trader who tend to careful will be defeated by feel Fear, many opportunities are lost because of fear of losing, many profits are not optimal  because that emotion forces you to close your position early.

Trader who want to get profit fastest is tend has a feel greedy, take every opportunities that arised, want to get more and more profit and always use all capital in big scale, Price movements in the forex market itself is motivated by two emotions are, only trader who can afford to defeat these emotion would survive and achieve success.

There are attitudes which must have to help to solve these emotions :

1. Set a reasonable goal
Almost every book which narrate the experiences of success trader is always tell that the success achieved based on the goal that they set. the goal help them to maintain their focus and success, someone will work effectively if he has the goal in his mind even he will achieves maximize work effectively if he knows and really understands what the goal of his job, and what profit of his job that he is doing.

In order for your goals is not too burdensome for you and can be achieved, then
- The goal must be realistic
- The goal must be can achieved
- The goal must be can measured

2. Learning to love to take loss
The saying that often you hear among trader is "learning to receives the loss as a part of game" in any business there is time to get loss when your business has not been  known by the peoples , still must doing some promotion to known by peoples, give a discount to  attract customers, it way very natural in business.

As well as in forex trading must learning receives the loss to sharpen the skills. don't blame anybody either the broker, trading system etc.. Learning to receives the loss with open hand like you received the profits. look for to know what the thing that cause you get the loss.

A success trader is not who has not ever been get the loss, but is the trader who can push to minimize the loss risk and increase the profit range with the right strategy.

3. You deserve a big victory and fast
Any wrong thought that you receive in life from parent / culture, even in environment where you grew up, most of you who teached that must to work hard to achieve big benefit, harder you work the greater benefit. that thought bring you till now and when you try look for benefit in forex, suddenly your transaction get profit $1000 in five minutes, There is a feeling "not feasible" to get the money in time so fast, you will let the benefit decrease to decrease feeling wrong way. The big benefit that you received is your work hard result, you deserve it.

4. Rule of transaction
Build the rule of your transaction for yourself, the rule that appear from your good habits as long as do transaction and bring you a profit.
examples:
- started with pray and spiritual habit can made you rilax.
- stopped if the goal have achieved.
- multiply reading about fundamental news to broaden the horizon.
- upgrade your knowledge with reading
- dicipline in trading with rule that you created
- sports
- sleep enough
- make priority.

5. Create wise stop loss
Your skills to monitoring and watch price movement limitted by the time its really impossible you are online 24 hours in day, realize of that you begin to use stop loss is the simple preventive step and wise.

Use stop loss as the rule:
- Take maximum stop loss in the mount of risk that has set.
- Stop loss depends on range of channel (use bolinger band)
- Adapt to timeframe you chose.

6. Being Objective
Being objective when watching price movement of market is the  important thing. objective trader will receives every input and make it be consideration to take position.
7 characters of objective trader are:
- Did not feel be pressed.
- Did not feel be fear.
- Did not feel be denied.
- No wrong and no right way.
- Confident with the assessment that you create.
- You can analyze the market with a perspective as if he was not taking a position.
- Do not focus on money but on price movement.

7. Revenge trading
Don't ever trading because of revenge, in that situation your emotion will not rilax, you will be angry to the market movement which not match direction with you want, when feel angry arise you will open position to hope change your loss and didnot based on your analysis, so your decision didnot based on  clarity of your mind ,finally you will be in loss with big value.

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Pivot points

Pivot point is arithmetic calculation result which used traders to determine Support level and Resistance level as guide tool, however pivot point is still included technical analysis branch due to based of previous prices projection.

Pivot point analysis
According to analysis pivot point has two tendencies, if daily open price openned at above pivot point , then the prices always above that point till touch the ressistance line, otherwise if daily open price openned at under pivot points, then the prices always there untill touch the support line. when it is not afford to through Ressistance 1 then it will tend back to Support 1. otherwise when it is not afford to through support 1 then it will tend to Ressistance 1.

Ressistance is the point above pivot point where the price tend moves back when touch or close this line. support is the point under the pivot points where the price touch or close this line will tend go back moves up.

If the market openned at or near R2 or S2 then the price tend go back moves to pivot point.

Pivot points calculation
The calculation of pivot points is based of H,L,O,C (High,Low,Open,Close) prices which get from average yesterday data, its for daily pivot, but for weekly pivot you can get weekly average data.



In marketiva account you can get the data by candlestick chart style in daily timeframe,
get the previous candle and measure H,L,C,O as image above, one up candestick and other down candlestick.

Forex market openned 24 hours the closing market usually based on Eastern time (EST) at 5.00 pm or 24.00 wib.

At the formula bellow H=High price, L=Low price , C=Close O=Open at yesterday session.

Pivot Point = (H+L+C)/3

Resistance Level 1 = (2*PP)-L
Support Level 1 = (2*PP)-H

Resistance Level 2 = (PP-S1) + R1
Support Level 2 = PP – (R1 – S1)

Resistance Level 3 = (PP-S2)+R2
Support Level 3 = PP – (R2-S2)

middle point as:

M1= (S2+S1)/2
M2= (S1+PP)/2
M3 = (R1+PP)/2
M4 = (R2+R1)/2

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BGX system trading strategy

BGX is short name of BunnyGirl Trading Cros Framework, BunnyGirl is as a username who had ever been active in trader community forum such as Moneytec.com and StrategyBuilderFX.com. Bunnygirl explained this system in very detail and easy to be used in forex trading. And this strategy was proofed much help traders success in trading.

Best time to use this system is between 14.00 WIB - 24.00 WIB, when Europe market open and us market open.

Things to support this system such as:
-Timeframe 30 Minute use candlestick chart or bar chart type
-Indicator use WMA-5(Blue) , WMA-20(Orange) and WMA-100(Green), in the previous post sidus system have explained how to set this indicator.
-Indikator RSI-14 (default).

Setting these indicators on Marketiva account:
After login on marketiva account then you should see main chart bellow and  set these above indicators.



1. Timeframe 30 Minute and candlestick chart or bar chart
-Right click on main chart will appear context menu find 'timescale' then select '30 Minutes' then chart will appear shows all (Open,Close,High,Low) update every 30 minutes.

-Right click again on main chart find "style" and select 'Candlestick chart' or 'Bar chart' its up to you. and chart will changes as you want.

2.WMA-5(Blue) WMA-20(Orange) and WMA-100(Green)
-Right click on main chart find 'indicators' chose 'Moving Average' then will appear tab at right fill type option to Weighted (WMA=Weightening Moving Average).
-Change default period column to 5 then click line color chose Blue color. click ok and now you have WMA-5 (Blue color).

-Do the same for WMA-20(Orange) and WMA-100(Green). Now you have WMA-5,WMA-20 and WMA-100.

3.Indicator RSi-14
-Right click on main chart find  'indicators' select "Relative Strenght Index (RSI)" fill 'period' column to 14. then save the chart to save just right click on chart select 'Save Chart' fill the name as you want.




Application of this strategy system :
-WMA-5(Blue) as  price market follower.
-WMA-20(orange) as confrmation entry signal.
-WMA-100(Green) as daily trend indentification.

Prepared to take Buy position if:
-WMA-5 crosses up WMA-20 from bottom to top
-WMA-5 and WMA-20 placed above WMA-100
-RSI on above 50 (middle line)
-Do entry Buy position if the current price placed on 30 point through above  WMA-5 and WMA-20 cross point.

Prepared to take Sell position if:
-WMA-5 crosses WMA-20 from top to bottom
-WMA-5 and WMA-20 placed under WMA-100
-RSI value under 50
-Do entry Sell position if current price has 30 point under WMA-5 and WMA-20 cross point.

Target point 30 pips and stop loss -5 from WMA-5 and WMA-20 cross point.

Example trading:
when WMA-5 and crosses up through WMA-20 at price 1.2530 and RSI 14 value shown above 50, take prepared to get Buy position, then take Buy position after price 30 pips move above 1.2530 (1.2530+0.0030(30 pip))is 1.2560 and put stoploss at 1.2525, 1.25.30-0.0005, under cross point.

Use demo account for practise.

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Sidus system strategy

Sidus system is one of most popular and efficient system trading among forex traders to reached success earning in forex. it can be used as determinant currently trend for long or short therm. this system also is combined results of BGX system and Vegas system which are quite popular system.

Applicatian this system is suggested to use currency pair EUR/USD and EUR/GBP (select one pair) and used this system  when europe market open (14.00 WIB) or us market open(19.00 WIB).

some important  indicators to support this system  consist of:
-Time frame 1H use candlestic chart or bar chart type.
-EMA 18 and EMA 28 (both are red color) as tunnel
-WMA 5 (blue color) and WMA 8 (yellow color)
*about color  can chose it as you like.

way to setup those indicators on marketiva, say you have logged in to streamster marketiva account:

setup timeframe 1 hour and candlestick chart or bar chart
-On main chart, right click it then will appear context menu say "time scale" select it and then chose "hourly" then grafic will representing price (open, close, high, low) every 1 hour, every chart update.
-Still on main chart, right click again on it then chose "style" and select "candlestick chart" or "bar chart"

setting EMA 18 and EMA 28 ( red color)
-On main chart, right click it, will appear context menu, select "indicators" then chose "moving average", fill the type being "Exponential" (EMA=Exponential moving average), change default period to "18" after that change the color click"line color" to red color.
-do the same as above for EMA 28.

now you have two lines with red color on chart, each as EMA 18 and EMA 28

setting WMA 5 (blue) and WMA 8 (yellow)
-On main chart , right click it then appear context menu , select "indicators" then selsct 'moving average", chose the type "weighted" (WMA=Weightedl Moving Average), change default period to 5 for WMA 5 and change period to 8 for WMA 8. and click line color to blue for WMA 5 and to yellow for WMA 8

now you have four lines on chart are EMA 18, EMA 28,WMA 5,WMA 8 ,save the chart and give a name any, such as: "sidus system", this is useful for future login on streamster marketiva you dont need to resetup it.


Application of this system trading:

EMA 18 and EMA 28:are as two tunnel lines which help you to determine when the trend  has been starting and when the trend has been ending in long therm.

WMA 5 and WMA 8: are two lines will help you to determine when you have to entry to market and when you have to exit from the market. and these lines also can be used to predict the strength of the trend (short therm).

Entry signal:
Do entry position (buy or sell) only both lines of tunnel (EMA 18 and EMA 28) began to intersect or began to narrow.

Take Buy position if WMA-5 and WMA-8 crosses up the tunnel lines (EMA 18 and EMA 28) from under tunnel across to above it.

Take Sell position if WMA-5 and WMA-8 crosses the tunnel lines (EMA 18 and EMA 28) from above tunnel crosses to under it.

Exit  position signal
if you have buy position, be carefull if WMA-5 crosses down through WMA-8 and exit position when WMA-5 and WMA-8 move down through tunnel line (EMA-18 and EMA-28)from top to bottom.

otherwise, if you have sell position, be carefull if WMA-5 crosses up through WMA-8 and exit position when WMA-5 and WMA-8 together crosses up through  tunnel line(EMA-8 and EMA-28) from bottom to top.

And always exit your postion whatever that if tunnel line (EMA-8 and EMA-28) moved closer to each other  even being cross shape , it shows change of trend will be hapened.
(read: trend reversal). in this case, you should reverse the posistion of the previous. remember, Make the trend as a friend.

example image :

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